EDUCATIONAL EXPLAINER · ILLUSTRATIVE MODEL
The lead changed. The ballots didn’t.
It tells us about the ballots reported so far. The same sample ballots can produce different early leaders. [1] [2]
This model cannot explain a real race or establish whether a real reporting change was an error.
Reporting order changes the partial picture
Horizontal: reported ballots (not time). Vertical: A minus B.
Green: forward order · Rust: reverse order. Dashed lines connect reported batches; they do not imply measured intermediate counts.
| Order | Reported | A | B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 40 | 24 | 16 |
| Forward | 70 | 38 | 32 |
| Forward | 100 | 47 | 53 |
| Reverse | 30 | 9 | 21 |
| Reverse | 60 | 23 | 37 |
| Reverse | 100 | 47 | 53 |
- 2 source records
- U.S. Election Assistance Commission
- DontSuckMedia development build
How we know2 scoped claims · 2 source recordsView evidence
Each claim keeps its full assertion, date, source passage and limits. Source counts describe records, not independent corroboration.
1.Claim 1Supported
In our 100-ballot example, reversing the reporting order changes the early leader while leaving the completed tally at A: 47, B: 53.
- Scope
- The hypothetical model only.
- Evidence passage
- Three batches: 24/16, 14/16, 9/21. Sum the same batches in either order.
- As of
- 2026-10-09
- Limit
- Not a forecast, a real count, or evidence about misconduct.
Retrieved 2026-10-09T10:12:47Z · DontSuckMedia development build
Invented teaching examples. Not observed votes, audiences or news coverage.
2.Claim 2Supported
Election-night reporting does not itself certify a result. Official certification follows the required processes in the relevant jurisdiction.
- Scope
- U.S. election process; no specific race.
- Evidence passage
- Election Certification section; distinction between election-night reports and official results.
- As of
- 2026-10-09
- Limit
- Timing and procedures vary by jurisdiction.
Retrieved 2026-10-09T10:12:47Z · U.S. Election Assistance Commission
Describes procedures. It does not independently audit any particular election.
Still open: This example does not describe a real race.
What remains unresolved
- This example does not describe a real race.
- A real count needs verified batch records and jurisdiction-specific procedures before we can explain a change.
- The completed sample tally is still labeled unofficial. Counting and certification are different steps.
A corrected or withdrawn batch would change the underlying record. We would need to separate that revision from newly reported ballots before explaining the lead.