← 2026-11-02 edition · Sourced reporting
Kīlauea: November 3–7 forecast remains conditional
As of 2026-11-02 · Publication details
OBSERVED · small overflow[1]
Overnight spattering/overflow; summit eruption paused after episode 55 ended October 17.
Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island · HVO update November 1, 2026. Observed small overflow and conditional November 3–7 fountaining forecast are distinct. No guaranteed eruption time, open viewing area or individual gas-exposure assessment.
Read the records as a table
| Record | Meaning |
|---|---|
| OBSERVED · small overflow | Overnight spattering/overflow; summit eruption paused after episode 55 ended October 17. [1] |
| FORECAST · November 3–7 | Conditional on inflation patterns; precise timing uncertain. [2] [3] |
| CHECK · access and air quality | Gas can remain hazardous downwind during a pause. [4] [5] |
HVO’s November 1 update reports a small overnight overflow while the summit eruption remains paused after episode 55 ended on October 17. Its November 3–7 forecast depends on how inflation develops. A predicted window is not an observed eruption—or a promise of safe viewing. [1] [2] [3]
Still open: No exact start date or day-by-day probability for episode56. The forecast could change with new deformation observations. All open questions ↓
Use Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park’s conditions page to check current notices and follow its air-quality and volcano-status links. A forecast window does not grant access to a closed area. →Read the full story
The reporting question: What has HVO observed at Kīlauea—and what is still only a forecast?
What was actually observed
HVO reports overnight spattering and a small overflow before drainback. It describes the summit eruption as paused after episode 55 ended on October 17. Keep that observation separate from any future forecast. [1]
Why the window remains conditional
The November 3–7 window assumes summit inflation follows patterns seen before earlier episodes. HVO cautions that the unusual buildup to the previous episode leaves uncertainty about precise timing. The update gives no day-by-day probability, and this report makes no eruption call. [2] [3]
Plan around current access and air quality
A pause does not remove every hazard: HVO warns that gas can remain locally hazardous downwind even when vents are not actively erupting. Use the park’s current conditions and air-quality routes before visiting. This report provides no household exposure assessment or assurance that a viewing area is open. [4] [5]
Archive photograph · 2020-12-29 · Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island
- 2 source records
- USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory — November1 daily update
- National Park Service — Hawaiʻi Volcanoes conditions
How we know5 scoped claims · 2 source recordsView evidence
Each claim keeps its full assertion, date, source passage and limits. Source counts describe records, not independent corroboration.
1.Observed: small overflowAttributed
HVO’s November 1 update reports an overnight small lava overflow and spattering, while the summit eruption remains paused after episode 55 ended on October 17.
- Scope
- Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island · HVO update November 1, 2026. Observed small overflow and conditional November 3–7 fountaining forecast are distinct. No guaranteed eruption time, open viewing area or individual gas-exposure assessment.
- Evidence passage
- November1 HVO Daily Update > Overview and Summit Observations: very small overflow began8:31p.m.HST for approximately8minutes before drainback; Summary of episode 55: episode ended October 17 at9:03a.m.HST. The summit eruption remains paused.
- As of
- 2026-11-02
- Limit
- Not an observation that the forecast fountaining episode 56 has started; the source separates the small overflow during the eruption pause from completed episode 55 and forecast episode 56.
Retrieved 2026-11-02T09:48:36.401Z · USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory — November1 daily update
Aggregate page contains other observatories and older material. Claims are anchored only to the complete HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE headed November1,10:17AMHST/20:17UTC. A forecast depends on deformation-pattern assumptions and is not an eruption observation.
2.Forecast: November 3–7Attributed
HVO forecasts a November 3–7 window for episode 56 fountaining, conditional on summit inflation following patterns from episodes before 54.
- Scope
- Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island · HVO update November 1, 2026. Observed small overflow and conditional November 3–7 fountaining forecast are distinct. No guaranteed eruption time, open viewing area or individual gas-exposure assessment.
- Evidence passage
- November1 HVO Daily Update > Overview and Analysis, explicit forecast window and assumptions.
- As of
- 2026-11-02
- Limit
- A modeled window, not an appointment or guaranteed start date. Do not treat future activity as completed.
Retrieved 2026-11-02T09:48:36.401Z · USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory — November1 daily update
Aggregate page contains other observatories and older material. Claims are anchored only to the complete HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE headed November1,10:17AMHST/20:17UTC. A forecast depends on deformation-pattern assumptions and is not an eruption observation.
3.Unusual buildup limits precisionAttributed
HVO says the unusual buildup to the preceding episode leaves uncertainty about whether summit deformation will follow a consistent enough pattern for precise forecasting.
- Scope
- Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island · HVO update November 1, 2026. Observed small overflow and conditional November 3–7 fountaining forecast are distinct. No guaranteed eruption time, open viewing area or individual gas-exposure assessment.
- Evidence passage
- November1 HVO Daily Update > Analysis, paragraph beginning The fluctuations in tilt rate and following uncertainty sentence.
- As of
- 2026-11-02
- Limit
- The report supplies no calibrated probability for each date; no percent or forecast certainty invented.
Retrieved 2026-11-02T09:48:36.401Z · USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory — November1 daily update
Aggregate page contains other observatories and older material. Claims are anchored only to the complete HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE headed November1,10:17AMHST/20:17UTC. A forecast depends on deformation-pattern assumptions and is not an eruption observation.
4.A pause does not remove gas hazardsAttributed
HVO says volcanic-gas emissions can remain locally hazardous downwind of the vents even when they are not actively erupting.
- Scope
- Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island · HVO update November 1, 2026. Observed small overflow and conditional November 3–7 fountaining forecast are distinct. No guaranteed eruption time, open viewing area or individual gas-exposure assessment.
- Evidence passage
- November1 HVO Daily Update > Hazards > Volcanic Gas.
- As of
- 2026-11-02
- Limit
- General geographic hazard statement, not a measurement of any household’s exposure or a claim that all Hawaiʻi Island is unsafe.
Retrieved 2026-11-02T09:48:36.401Z · USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory — November1 daily update
Aggregate page contains other observatories and older material. Claims are anchored only to the complete HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE headed November1,10:17AMHST/20:17UTC. A forecast depends on deformation-pattern assumptions and is not an eruption observation.
5.Check current conditions and air qualityAttributed
NPS’s public conditions page links park notices, air quality and current volcano status, and advises frequent air-quality checks during a visit.
- Scope
- Kīlauea summit, Hawaiʻi Island · HVO update November 1, 2026. Observed small overflow and conditional November 3–7 fountaining forecast are distinct. No guaranteed eruption time, open viewing area or individual gas-exposure assessment.
- Evidence passage
- NPS conditions > Park Notices > Air Quality; What’s Going On With the Volcanoes.
- As of
- 2026-11-02
- Limit
- Service page last updatedJune8. No new closure or universal safe-viewing claim is inferred.
Retrieved 2026-11-02T09:48:34.130Z · National Park Service — Hawaiʻi Volcanoes conditions
Older public help page; never assigned a new publication date from retrieval. Its air-quality and current-status links are service routes, not a current exposure measurement or open-viewing guarantee.
What remains open.
- No exact start date or day-by-day probability for episode56. The forecast could change with new deformation observations.
- No independent current exposure measurement, new park access approval or actual visitor outcome.
- Separate source review and publisher checks of browser rendering, help, photographs and mobile layouts remain pending.
- The earlier photograph’s originating rights remain unresolved. Its original bytes and records stay private; this draft instead uses a dated creator-licensed archive photograph. Separate review of the replacement remains pending.
A new HVO observation/forecast, changed alert or actual park closure/reopening would reopen the affected account.
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